Coal demand hits record before expected slowdown
Global coal consumption reached an all-time high in 2025, according to the International Energy Agency, but the fuel’s long-term trajectory is beginning to shift. The IEA estimates that coal demand increased by 0.5% this year to roughly 8.85 billion metric tons, driven by regional factors rather than a structural resurgence.
Despite this short-term growth, the agency expects coal use to level off and begin a gradual decline before the end of the decade, as cleaner energy sources continue to expand their share of global electricity generation.
Renewables, gas and nuclear reshape power markets
The IEA points to the accelerating deployment of renewable energy, alongside steady growth in nuclear power and abundant supplies of natural gas, as the key forces eroding coal’s dominance. While coal remains the single largest source of electricity worldwide, its role is increasingly challenged by alternatives that are both cheaper to operate and aligned with climate targets.
According to the agency, this shift is essential for meeting global emissions goals, even if progress remains uneven across regions.
Diverging regional trends in 2025
Coal demand patterns varied sharply across major economies this year. In India, coal use fell for only the third time in 50 years, largely due to unusually strong monsoon seasons that boosted hydropower output and dampened electricity demand.
In contrast, the United States saw higher coal consumption as natural gas prices rose and policy support increased. President Donald Trump signed measures aimed at preventing coal plant closures and encouraging domestic coal production, temporarily reversing earlier declines.
China remains the decisive factor
China, by far the world’s largest coal consumer, recorded broadly flat demand in 2025. Looking ahead, the IEA expects Chinese coal use to edge lower by 2030 as renewable capacity continues to expand.
However, the agency cautioned that stronger-than-expected electricity demand growth or delays in renewable integration in China could keep global coal consumption above current forecasts. Given that China alone burns more coal than the rest of the world combined, its energy choices will largely determine the global outcome.
