Jamie Spencer
Nasdaq’s Resilience: What History Suggests for 2025
The Nasdaq Composite has been on an impressive run, surging 43% in 2023 and 29% in 2024, largely driven by artificial intelligence (AI) advancements. But will the rally continue in 2025?
A look at historical trends suggests that despite occasional downturns, the Nasdaq tends to rebound strongly after a decline. Below are the years where the index posted negative annual returns:
| Year(s) | Annual Return |
|---|---|
| 1973, 1974 | (31%), (35%) |
| 1981 | (3%) |
| 1984 | (11%) |
| 1987 | (5%) |
| 1990 | (18%) |
| 1994 | (3%) |
| 2000-2002 | (39%), (21%), (32%) |
| 2008 | (41%) |
| 2011 | (2%) |
| 2018 | (4%) |
| 2022 | (33%) |
Data Source: Macrotrends.
The Nasdaq has only declined in 14 of its 55 years and has experienced major drops (over 20%) just seven times. These downturns coincided with economic crises, such as the dot-com bubble, the 2008 financial crisis, and the 2022 inflation surge.
Given this historical trend, 2025 could still be a strong year for the Nasdaq, continuing its upward trajectory.
Why Micron Technology is a Top AI Stock Pick for 2025
Among AI-related semiconductor stocks, most investors focus on Nvidia, Broadcom, or Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing. However, Micron Technology (NASDAQ: MU) is an under-the-radar stock poised for major growth.
The AI Boom and Micron’s Role
AI development relies on training and inferencing, which require high-bandwidth memory (HBM) chips—Micron’s specialty. As AI applications expand rapidly, Micron estimates the HBM market will surpass $100 billion by 2030, more than six times its current value.
Micron’s Valuation is Too Good to Ignore
Despite a 27% gain in 2024, Micron’s stock is down over 30% from its 52-week high, making now a prime opportunity to buy.
Key valuation metrics:
- Forward Price-to-Earnings (P/E) ratio: 15.3 (lower than peers and the S&P 500)
- AI Infrastructure Growth: Positioned for long-term gains as AI expands
- HBM Market Leader: Essential to AI model training and inferencing
Investors may be overlooking how crucial HBM chips are, making Micron a potential hidden gem in the AI sector.
Final Thoughts
Given historical Nasdaq trends and Micron’s positioning in AI infrastructure, 2025 could be another strong year for tech stocks. With Micron’s discounted valuation, now might be the perfect time to invest for long-term gains.
