Gold Tops $3,000 as Trade War and Inflation Fears Rise

Gold prices soared past the $3,000 mark on Friday, as economic uncertainties and escalating trade tensions fueled demand for the safe-haven asset.

Gold Hits New Highs

Gold futures (GC=F) traded above $3,008 per ounce, while spot gold briefly surpassed $3,001. The metal is on track for its second consecutive week of gains, buoyed by signs of moderating inflation and retaliatory tariffs from U.S. trading partners.

“Though it feels like a psychological threshold, gold at $3,000 might just be a stepping stone if trade wars deepen,” said Tony Redondo, founder of Cosmos Currency Exchange. “That said, it’s not all about Trump. Central banks, interest rate bets, geopolitical tensions, and inflation concerns are all stoking the flames.”

Trade War Fuels Gold’s Rally

Trade tensions escalated after President Donald Trump threatened 200% tariffs on wine and spirit imports from Europe on Thursday. The announcement followed the European Union’s retaliatory duties in response to the U.S. 25% tariff on steel and aluminum.

Gold has climbed more than 12% year to date, hitting multiple record highs in recent months. Analysts see continued support for the metal as investors seek protection from inflation and trade-related risks.

Wall Street Adjusts Gold Price Forecasts

Wall Street analysts are scrambling to update price targets as gold continues its meteoric rise.

In a Thursday note, Macquarie Group projected that gold could reach $3,500 per ounce by the third quarter.

“Year-to-date, gold has been running ahead of our expectations,” wrote Marcus Garvey, head of commodities strategy at Macquarie. “We are raising our gold price forecast to a 3Q25 quarter average peak of $3,150 per ounce and our single-point price high to $3,500 per ounce.”

Central Banks and Institutional Buying

Market strategists point to central bank demand and tariff uncertainty as key drivers of gold’s rise. Some investors fear that even gold imports into the U.S. may soon face tariffs.

Institutional investors have responded by shipping large amounts of physical gold bars to New York vaults, attempting to front-run potential tariffs and take advantage of price disparities between London and New York.

Joe Cavatoni, market strategist at the World Gold Council, noted, “With rising inflation expectations, lower rates, and continued uncertainty, we continue to see support for gold looking ahead.”