Strong AI strategy drives investor confidence
Shopify is outperforming Canadian tech peers in 2025, thanks to its aggressive push into artificial intelligence and expanding merchant solutions. While Canada’s broader tech sector has struggled to keep up with U.S. indices, Shopify delivered an estimated 8% return in the first half of the year, compared to the 5.6% gain from the S&P/TSX Information Technology Index.
Analysts from National Bank, CIBC, and RBC all rate Shopify as a “buy,” emphasizing the company’s AI integration as a key driver of long-term profitability. According to Richard Tse of National Bank, AI is becoming Shopify’s strongest growth catalyst, both for internal operations and merchant-facing solutions.
AI-first culture reshapes business operations
Shopify CEO Tobi Lütke has made AI central to the company’s evolution. In April, he told staff that using AI was now the standard across teams, requiring justification for manual tasks or requests for new hires. In May, Shopify introduced new AI-powered features to help merchants create and manage stores more efficiently, part of its strategy toward “declarative commerce” — allowing business owners to express goals that AI then executes.
This cultural shift aligns with broader product expansion. For example, Shopify expanded its payments coverage from 23 to 39 countries in 2025. Analysts believe a future Shop Pay integration with OpenAI could bring in an additional $500 million in net revenue annually.
Merchant growth and e-commerce trends fuel optimism
Shopify continues to benefit from the structural transition from physical retail to digital commerce. RBC’s Paul Trieber calls the company a “key beneficiary” of this transformation, forecasting a rise in gross merchandise value from $292 billion in 2024 to $423 billion by 2026. CIBC’s Todd Coupland also noted Shopify’s strong merchant base, which expanded dramatically from 2 million merchants in late 2021 to 25 million prospects or users by the end of 2023.
Despite ongoing global trade uncertainty, particularly U.S.-China tariff tensions, analysts downplay the threat to Shopify’s momentum. Coupland suggests that even conservative forecasts could be exceeded if a favorable tariff resolution is reached in the second half of the year.
Upgraded price targets reflect bullish outlook
Driven by strong performance and innovation, analysts have revised their price targets upward. National Bank raised its target to $140, up from $120. CIBC and RBC have increased theirs to $145 from $125. With solid fundamentals, an AI-first strategy, and global merchant expansion, Shopify is positioning itself as a top performer in North America’s evolving e-commerce landscape.
