Jamie Spencer
Mortgage Rates Climb After Weeks of Relative Calm
Mortgage rates surged this week, breaking a period of stability, as Trump’s tariff announcement triggered inflation concerns and rattled the bond market. According to Mortgage News Daily, the average 30-year mortgage rate rose to 6.92% on Thursday, up 29 basis points from a week ago. Zillow reported it slightly lower, at 6.84%, despite the pause on Trump tariffs for most countries.
Treasury Yields and Market Volatility Drive the Spike
Following the announcement, Treasury yields fell briefly, but soon reversed as fears of stagflation and weakened foreign demand for U.S. bonds emerged. These movements directly influenced mortgage rates, which track 10-year Treasury yields closely. Yields now sit at approximately 4.34%, up from around 4.16% before Trump’s so-called “Liberation Day.”
Experts Warn of Uncertainty in Mortgage Rate Forecasts
“The economic situation is rapidly evolving,” said Kara Ng, senior economist at Zillow Home Loans. “It’s hard to predict the direction of mortgage rates with any conviction.” Despite Trump calling the bond market “beautiful,” the volatility continues to affect rate projections for buyers and refinancers alike.
30-Year Mortgage Rates See Conflicting Reports
Freddie Mac’s weekly mortgage rate survey, which concluded on Wednesday, reflected a slight dip to 6.62% for 30-year fixed mortgages — down from 6.64% the week prior. Meanwhile, 15-year mortgage rates remained flat at 5.82%. These mixed signals highlight how turbulent the lending environment has become.
Refinancing and Mortgage Applications Surge
Mortgage broker Tim Stafford of Edge Home Finance shared how intense the week has been. “Usually I get two rate updates from lenders on a bad day — this Monday, one major lender sent three,” he said. He advises borrowers who are happy with their estimated monthly payments to lock in their mortgage rates rather than try to time the market. A recent client ignored that advice and missed a low point over the weekend.
Despite the uncertainty, mortgage applications soared. According to the Mortgage Bankers Association, home purchase applications jumped 9% week-over-week, and refinancing applications shot up 35%, as consumers acted quickly to capitalize on the brief rate drop.
