Jamie Spencer
China’s newly imposed tariffs on U.S. agricultural products are set to disrupt global trade flows, forcing the world’s largest agricultural importer to source more meat, dairy, and grains from South America, Europe, and the Pacific.
Shift in Agricultural Trade Flows
Shipments from key suppliers such as Brazil (soybeans), Australia (wheat), and Europe (pork) are expected to increase as China retaliates against fresh U.S. duties. China announced tariff hikes of 10% and 15% on $21 billion worth of American agricultural goods on Tuesday.
“There will be rerouting of trade after China’s import tariffs on U.S. goods,” said Pan Chenjun, a senior analyst for animal protein at Rabobank in Hong Kong. “The main products that will be impacted are pork offal and chicken feet. For pork, both muscle and offal, China will get more supplies from Brazil, Spain, the Netherlands, and other EU countries.”
China’s Reduced Dependence on U.S. Agriculture
China remains the largest market for U.S. agricultural exports, accounting for $29.25 billion in 2024. However, trade tensions have steadily pushed China to reduce its reliance on U.S. farm goods since the first trade war under President Donald Trump.
In addition to tariffs on China, Trump also imposed duties on imports from Canada and Mexico, further impacting the $191 billion U.S. agricultural export industry.
Limited Alternatives for Chicken Feet
China imported $16.26 billion worth of U.S. beef, pork, and chicken, including offal, in 2024. In response to U.S. tariffs, it has imposed a 15% tariff on American chicken products and a 10% tariff on pork and beef.
While European and South American meat shipments to China are expected to rise, China’s reliance on U.S. chicken feet will likely continue due to limited alternatives. “Importers of chicken feet will just pay the duty and import from the United States in the meantime,” Pan said.
U.S. exports of chicken feet, pork ears, and offal are highly valued in Chinese cuisine but have little demand domestically in the United States.
Increased Demand for Brazilian and Australian Grains
China has already reduced its dependence on U.S. soybeans since Trump’s first term, but the latest tariffs will accelerate its reliance on Brazil and Argentina.
“From a soybean perspective, South American suppliers are likely to benefit. Suppliers of other oilseeds, like canola, could also see a boost,” said Dennis Voznesenski, an analyst at Commonwealth Bank in Sydney.
China also depends on the U.S. for about two-thirds of its sorghum imports. With Beijing imposing a 10% duty on the animal feed grain, Australian farmers are expected to benefit.
“Sorghum would be a clear winner. Probably barley would also stand to benefit,” said Rod Baker, an analyst at Australian Crop Forecasters in Perth. “Australia is harvesting quite a big crop this year.”
Additionally, the higher tariff on U.S. wheat could push China to increase purchases from Australian suppliers, although China’s recent local wheat production surplus has reduced overall import demand.
Changing Trade Patterns
China’s tariffs on U.S. farm products are reshaping global agricultural trade, with South America, Europe, and Australia emerging as key beneficiaries. As trade tensions persist, U.S. farmers face increasing competition in one of their largest export markets.
