Jamie Spencer
Donald Trump’s return to the White House after winning the 2024 presidential election promises to reshape U.S. business policies, influenced by key appointments and legislative shifts. Significant outcomes depend on cabinet choices, potential involvement of figures like Tesla’s Elon Musk, and Trump’s proposed tariffs. Here’s what to watch in major sectors:
Musk’s Potential Role in Government
Trump has suggested that Tesla CEO Elon Musk could lead a government efficiency commission, potentially slashing $2 trillion from the $6.75 trillion federal budget. While Musk champions deregulation—a stance that may align with Trump’s policies—his interests in EVs, space, AI, and construction could pose conflicts. Observers are watching how this collaboration might impact oversight, especially for self-driving cars and rocket launches.
Financial Regulations
Trump has branded himself as a “crypto president” and may replace Gary Gensler, the SEC chair known for his strict regulation of the crypto industry. This shift could ease restrictions, promoting a friendlier environment for crypto businesses. Musk and venture capitalists like Marc Andreessen, along with Vice President J.D. Vance, are crypto advocates, potentially boosting industry momentum.
Tariff Plans and Trade Impact
Trump’s tariff agenda includes a sweeping 10% tariff on all U.S. imports and up to 60% on Chinese goods. Analysts estimate this could cost American consumers $46-78 billion annually, hitting categories like apparel, toys, and electronics hardest. The National Retail Federation notes the risk to consumer spending power and GDP shrinkage, while Bernstein analysts warn of higher costs for renewable energy projects reliant on Chinese imports. Retaliation from China could further strain U.S. farmers, as Beijing may reduce imports of American agricultural goods.
Energy Policies: Oil and Renewables
Trump aims to lift restrictions on domestic oil and gas production, including new LNG export permits and federal drilling auctions. However, he may face pushback regarding his opposition to the Inflation Reduction Act, which has bolstered carbon-capture initiatives funded by oil companies. The administration’s stance on rival exporters like Russia and Iran could also impact global oil prices.
Labor Unions and Worker Rights
Trump’s return could spell mixed outcomes for labor unions. While he has appealed to blue-collar workers and enjoys their support, his prior appointments to the National Labor Relations Board rolled back organizing rights. Any similar moves could challenge gains made by unions in recent years, affecting organizing drives at Amazon, Apple, and Starbucks.
Financial Sector Adjustments
Trump is expected to appoint pro-industry Republicans to financial regulatory bodies, potentially easing capital requirements and M&A regulations. While this may boost banks like JPMorgan, Goldman Sachs, and Bank of America, potential tax policies could widen the deficit and lead to inflation, pressuring lending rates and profitability.
Antitrust, Tech, and AI Regulations
Tech giants may find relief from stringent antitrust scrutiny under Trump. The DOJ’s current case against Google might be dropped in favor of settlements, while Lina Khan, known for her tough antitrust stance at the FTC, is likely to be replaced. Backers like Musk and Andreessen are advocating for reduced regulation on emerging tech, benefiting fields from AI to space exploration.
Media and FCC Oversight
Trump’s campaign rhetoric included calls for the FCC to revoke licenses for networks like ABC and CBS, citing free speech violations. FCC Chair Jessica Rosenworcel has condemned such proposals, but Trump’s pledge to bring regulatory agencies under presidential control could challenge the FCC’s independence. This move may spark debates over press freedom and national security claims used for regulatory interventions.
Pharmaceuticals and Vaccine Oversight
Trump’s potential decision to involve anti-vaccine advocate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. in vaccine policy has raised concerns. While Trump’s past appointments to health agencies were moderate, Kennedy’s influence could disrupt current health policies and impact U.S. drug approval processes. Industry leaders worry about potential risks to the nation’s healthcare credibility.
