Jamie Spencer
Danish shipping giant Maersk posted stronger-than-expected first-quarter results on Thursday but cautioned that ongoing U.S.-China trade tariffs could limit global container market volumes in the coming months. The company, considered a key indicator of global trade, reported a preliminary underlying EBITDA of $2.71 billion for Q1 2025, marking a 70% increase from $1.59 billion during the same period last year, surpassing analyst expectations of $2.57 billion.
Profit Guidance Unchanged, But Trade Risks Remain
Despite the strong results, Maersk has revised its outlook for global container market growth in 2025 to a range of -1% to 4%, down from the previously forecasted 4% growth. The company attributes this revision to increasing macroeconomic and geopolitical uncertainty, particularly stemming from the ongoing trade conflict between the U.S. and China. Maersk CEO Vincent Clerc emphasized that while demand had remained robust in Q1, the escalation of tariffs had introduced significant volatility into the market.
The Impact of U.S.-China Tariffs
The shipping industry continues to grapple with the consequences of U.S. President Donald Trump’s trade policies, including the imposition of 145% tariffs on Chinese imports. This has prompted China to retaliate with tariffs on U.S. goods, leading to a sharp decline in container market volumes between the two countries. Maersk reported a 30%-40% drop in China-U.S. container volumes in April as businesses adopt a cautious, “wait-and-see” approach to the evolving tariff situation.
Outlook for the Rest of 2025
Looking ahead, Maersk anticipates continued volatility, particularly in the Red Sea region, which is expected to remain a key disruption point for global shipping throughout 2025. While Maersk’s strong preparation in the face of economic uncertainty helped it navigate the first quarter successfully, Clerc noted that the situation remains fluid, with a resolution to the U.S.-China tariff dispute remaining crucial for any meaningful recovery in container market volumes.
Market Reaction and Share Performance
Despite the strong performance, Maersk’s shares dropped by 2.2% in early trading on Thursday, reflecting investor concerns over the long-term effects of the tariff dispute. The company’s cautious outlook for the remainder of 2025 indicates that while growth remains possible, the path forward will be fraught with challenges as global trade dynamics shift in response to ongoing geopolitical tensions.
