Jamie Spencer
Banco BPM SpA is at the center of Italy’s banking sector drama as it reviews an unexpected €10.1 billion takeover bid from UniCredit SpA. The unsolicited offer has sparked tensions within the Italian financial ecosystem, raising questions about its implications for the government’s plans to consolidate the banking industry.
A High-Stakes Board Meeting
Banco BPM’s board of directors is meeting Tuesday to discuss the bid, which was unveiled by UniCredit CEO Andrea Orcel the previous day. While the session was initially scheduled for routine matters, the focus has shifted entirely to the takeover proposal. Banco BPM has not issued an official comment on the offer.
Orcel’s all-stock bid values Banco BPM shares at €6.657 each, translating to a total valuation of approximately €10.1 billion ($10.6 billion). Despite the offer, Banco BPM shares rose by 1% on Tuesday to €7.08, indicating market expectations for a higher bid.
The Strategic Context
UniCredit’s interest in Banco BPM is not new; Orcel has long seen it as a strategic acquisition. The timing, however, is critical. The Italian government has been working to create a rival to UniCredit and Intesa Sanpaolo SpA by building a major banking group around Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena SpA (MPS). Orcel’s move complicates these plans, potentially disrupting the government’s vision for a restructured banking landscape.
Banco BPM recently acquired a 5% stake in MPS from the government and could increase that stake if it successfully acquires asset manager Anima Holding SpA, which also holds shares in MPS.
Stakeholder Dynamics
French lender Credit Agricole SA, a significant investor in Banco BPM, holds about 9% of the bank’s shares and may have increased its stake to 19% through equity swaps, according to reports. However, Credit Agricole has not sought regulatory approval to exceed a 10% holding. The involvement of Credit Agricole adds another layer of complexity, as it may influence Banco BPM’s response to the bid.
Internal Resistance
Not all parties are on board with UniCredit’s proposal. Banco BPM board member Mauro Paoloni labeled the bid as hostile, signaling opposition to the deal. The board’s decision will likely hinge on the perceived strategic and financial merits of the offer.
Equita analyst Andrea Lisi acknowledged the industrial value of a merger but noted that the premium offered by UniCredit is limited. This sentiment could shape investor and board responses in the coming days.
UniCredit’s Broader Ambitions
Orcel’s strategy goes beyond Banco BPM. UniCredit has also been exploring a potential acquisition of Commerzbank AG in Germany. However, that deal faces significant opposition from the German government, and Orcel has indicated that its chances of success are waning.
UniCredit’s surprise bid for Banco BPM represents a pivotal moment for Italy’s banking sector. The outcome of this deal could reshape the competitive landscape, influencing not only Banco BPM’s future but also the government’s broader consolidation efforts. As Banco BPM’s board deliberates, the tension between shareholder interests and strategic national goals will come into sharp focus.
