Jamie Spencer
On Tuesday, American voters will head to the polls to choose the next president, with Democratic Vice President Kamala Harris and Republican Donald Trump in a neck-and-neck race. As the nation braces for election results, experts warn that this year’s contest could lead to a longer wait before a winner is declared, especially in key swing states.
When Can We Expect the 2024 Presidential Election Results?
In past elections, U.S. television networks have declared the winner within hours of the polls closing. However, with this year’s race expected to be exceptionally tight, the result may take longer to finalize. Polls begin closing at 6:00 p.m. EST on Tuesday, with the last closing at 1:00 a.m. EST on Wednesday.
Some states could produce results quickly, while others—such as Pennsylvania and Michigan—may require additional time, especially if recounts or legal challenges arise. In Pennsylvania, a recount is automatically triggered if the margin between the winner and loser is less than 0.5%.
Potential Delays: Legal Challenges and Vote Counting
More than 100 lawsuits have already been filed, mostly by Republicans challenging voter eligibility and election procedures. These legal challenges could delay the final outcome, particularly in swing states like Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin.
However, there are signs that the vote-counting process might be faster than in 2020. States like Michigan have streamlined their vote-counting procedures, and fewer ballots are being cast by mail compared to the previous election, which took place during the COVID-19 pandemic.
A Look at Past Election Results Timing
The 2020 election saw a four-day delay before networks declared Joe Biden the winner, as late-counted mail-in ballots from key states came in. By contrast, the 2016 election was decided shortly after 3:00 a.m. EST, when Trump was declared the winner. However, the 2000 election remains a notable exception, with the result delayed by five weeks due to a Florida recount and a final decision by the U.S. Supreme Court.
Swing States to Watch: Key Timelines for Results
The 2024 election is expected to come down to results from seven swing states, which could determine the outcome. Here’s when those states might declare results:
- Georgia: Polls close at 7:00 p.m. EST, with officials expecting to have 75% of the votes counted within two hours.
- North Carolina: Polls close at 7:30 p.m. EST, with results expected by the end of the night.
- Pennsylvania: Polls close at 8:00 p.m. EST, but it may take at least 24 hours for a clear winner to emerge.
- Michigan: Polls close at 9:00 p.m. EST, with results anticipated by the end of Wednesday.
- Wisconsin: Polls close at 9:00 p.m. EST, but the state may not have a result until Wednesday.
- Arizona: Early results could come in by 10:00 p.m. EST, though some counties may take longer.
- Nevada: Mail-in ballots can be accepted up until November 9, which could delay results for days.
Why Early Vote Data Might Be Misleading
In a tight race, early voting data may not provide an accurate picture of the final outcome. In the 2020 election, Trump initially led in several key states, but Biden later overtook him as mail-in ballots were counted. Election watchers warn of a similar phenomenon in 2024, with a potential “red mirage” favoring Trump early, or a “blue mirage” showing Harris in the lead before late results shift the outcome.
So far, over 83 million Americans have voted early, with women making up 54% of that tally—a potential advantage for Harris. However, Republicans have cast nearly as many early votes as Democrats this year, meaning early returns could be less indicative of the final result.
How Votes Are Counted and What Could Delay Results
Once polls close, votes cast on Election Day are typically counted first, followed by early and mail-in ballots. Election officials then verify and process each vote in a rigorous canvassing process. The sequence in which votes are counted can vary by state, and challenges or recounts could further delay results.
What Happens if Results Are Contested?
If the election results are challenged, the Electoral College comes into play. States award electoral votes to the candidate who wins the popular vote, and these votes are confirmed in mid-December. Congress meets in early January to officially count the votes and declare the winner.
However, delays could occur at the local or state level if election results are contested. Trump, his running mate JD Vance, and other top Republicans have refused to unequivocally commit to accepting the results if Trump loses, raising the potential for further disputes.
A Historic Election with Uncertain Timing
With a close race and several variables at play, the 2024 presidential election may not be decided immediately. Voters should be prepared for potential delays, recounts, and legal challenges, especially in swing states. As the U.S. heads into election night, all eyes will be on the key battlegrounds that could decide the fate of the presidency.
