Jamie Spencer
A nonpartisan budget group has warned that former President Donald Trump’s campaign proposals could drastically shorten Social Security’s solvency timeline, making the program insolvent in as few as six years. The analysis, published by the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget (CRFB), finds that Trump’s agenda could accelerate Social Security’s financial issues, leading to more significant shortfalls and steeper benefit cuts. The study raises concerns over the potential impacts of Trump’s proposed tax cuts and immigration policies on the popular government program.
Social Security’s Accelerating Insolvency Under Trump’s Plans
According to the CRFB, Trump’s proposals, which include eliminating taxes on Social Security benefits for seniors and lowering taxes on other key groups, could have significant consequences for the financial stability of Social Security. Under current projections, the Social Security trust fund is expected to run out of money by Fiscal Year (FY) 2034. However, the group’s analysis shows that Trump’s agenda could move this timeline forward to FY 2031, creating a more immediate crisis for millions of American retirees.
“We find President Trump’s campaign proposals would dramatically worsen Social Security’s finances,” the CRFB stated in its report, noting that Trump’s tax cuts would strip crucial revenue from the trust funds that support Social Security payments.
The accelerated timeline would also result in a 33% across-the-board benefit cut by 2035, according to the report, a significant increase from the 23% cut currently projected by the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) if no changes are made to the program.
Trump’s Campaign Pushback
The Trump campaign has fiercely rejected the CRFB’s analysis. In a statement to CNBC, Trump campaign spokeswoman Karoline Leavitt criticized the report and the CRFB, claiming that they had been “consistently wrong throughout the years.” She added that Trump is committed to “strongly protect Social Security in his second term,” and argued that it is Democratic nominee Kamala Harris whose policies pose a real threat to the program’s future, particularly by increasing immigration, which she claims would “cause Social Security to buckle and collapse.”
While immigration remains a contentious topic, only certain noncitizens are eligible for Supplemental Security Income, and the CRFB’s analysis focuses largely on the impacts of Trump’s proposed tax cuts rather than immigration policy.
Proposed Tax Cuts and Social Security’s Financial Health
Trump’s campaign proposals involve a wide range of tax cuts, including eliminating taxes on Social Security benefits for seniors, ending taxes on tips and overtime wages, and further lowering corporate tax rates. While popular among many voters, these tax cuts would have a profound effect on Social Security’s funding, according to budget analysts.
The CRFB estimates that Trump’s plans would increase Social Security’s 10-year shortfall by $2.3 trillion, forcing deeper cuts or requiring significant revenue increases to maintain the program’s solvency. Additionally, the group projects that by FY 2035, Social Security’s annual shortfall could grow by 50%, forcing either a reduction in current benefits by one-third or an equivalent increase in revenue to close the gap.
Maria Freese, senior legislative representative at the National Committee to Preserve Social Security and Medicare, emphasized the risks associated with Trump’s plans. “If you cut income taxes and cut payroll taxes, then you’re going to have an impact on Social Security,” Freese said. “Depending on the proposal that you’re looking at, it could have a dramatic impact over time, and particularly when you’re looking at a trust fund depletion date that’s within the decade anyway.”
Experts Weigh In on Social Security’s Future
Despite the alarming projections, some experts believe that Trump’s campaign may not be focused on undermining Social Security directly. Andrew Biggs, a senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute and former principal deputy commissioner of the Social Security Administration, suggested that the issue may not be a top priority for Trump’s team. “I don’t believe the Trump campaign is looking to undermine Social Security,” Biggs said. “I just don’t believe it’s front of mind for them as they put out various proposals.”
Biggs added that while certain proposals, such as ending taxes on Social Security benefits, would directly affect the program’s finances, other policies, like curbing immigration, could have indirect consequences. “It is such a large program that any policy that changes the economy or the tax code is likely to have some effect on Social Security,” he noted. “And likewise, Social Security is so big, any changes to Social Security will affect other things.”
What’s Next for Social Security Reform?
With the depletion dates for Social Security trust funds quickly approaching, both presidential campaigns will need to clarify how they plan to ensure the program’s long-term solvency. As of now, both Trump and Harris have pledged to protect Social Security and Medicare, though the specifics of their plans remain vague. As voters head into the 2024 election, the fate of Social Security will likely be a critical issue for millions of Americans who rely on the program for their retirement.
The CRFB’s analysis has raised red flags over how Trump’s campaign proposals could significantly shorten Social Security’s solvency timeline and deepen its financial shortfall. While Trump’s team has dismissed these concerns, the potential impacts of tax cuts and other policies on the program remain a key issue for voters. With Social Security’s trust funds facing depletion within the next decade, the future of the program will be a focal point as the 2024 presidential race unfolds.
