Shares jump over 20% after upbeat guidance
Rivian shares surged more than 20% in early trading after the electric vehicle maker issued 2026 delivery guidance that met Wall Street expectations and confirmed its highly anticipated R2 vehicle remains on track for launch in the second quarter.
The company expects 2026 deliveries between 62,000 and 67,000 vehicles, roughly in line with analyst projections of about 63,400 units. The guidance signals confidence that the upcoming R2 midsize SUV will materially expand Rivian’s sales base.
R2 launch seen as key turning point
Rivian confirmed early manufacturing validation builds of the R2 rolled off its assembly line in January, with customer deliveries targeted for the second quarter. CEO RJ Scaringe described the R2 as a critical inflection point for demonstrating long-term profitability through greater production scale.
Still, Rivian expects its 2026 adjusted EBITDA loss to range between $1.80 billion and $2.10 billion. Capital expenditures are projected between $1.95 billion and $2.05 billion, broadly matching analyst estimates.
Operational progress offsets revenue pressure
For the second straight quarter, Rivian posted positive gross profit, reporting $120 million overall. The automotive segment recorded a $59 million loss, while software and services generated $179 million in profit, largely driven by vehicle architecture and software development work tied to its joint venture with Volkswagen.
Full-year adjusted EBITDA loss totaled $2.063 billion, within company guidance but above some market estimates. Capital expenditures for the year were $1.71 billion. Rivian ended the fourth quarter with $6.082 billion in cash and cash equivalents and total liquidity of roughly $6.6 billion.
Supply chain remains a major risk
Scaringe warned that ramping production of the R2 carries supply chain risks, including potential constraints in chipsets, memory components, and aluminum supply. The company said it remains open to opportunistic capital raises, and expects an additional $2 billion in cash and debt from its Volkswagen joint venture this year.
Quarterly revenue came in at $1.286 billion, slightly above expectations but down about 27% year over year, reflecting lower regulatory credit sales and the expiration of the federal EV tax credit. Rivian reported an adjusted loss per share of $0.59, better than forecasts.
AI and autonomy strategy expands
Rivian is also investing heavily in its AI-driven autonomy platform. Its Large Driving Model aims to support expanded hands-free driving features, with long-term ambitions of achieving personal Level 4 autonomy.
As part of this strategy, Rivian is developing its own in-house chip, the Rivian Autonomy Processor, to power future self-driving capabilities instead of relying on external suppliers.
