A market that keeps surprising
Gold’s record-breaking run has turned the metal into one of the standout assets of the year. Prices have surged around $4,187 per ounce, gaining 57 percent so far in 2025. A combination of central bank demand, inflation concerns, and uncertainty around the U.S. economy has kept investors moving toward the safe-haven metal.
Wall Street strategists now believe the rally could continue through next year, with some of the largest banks projecting further double-digit gains. Several forecasts suggest the precious metal could add another 15 percent to 20 percent in 2026, even after its historic climb.
Bank of America calls for $5,000 gold
Bank of America expects gold to push as high as $5,000 per ounce next year, supported by conditions that remain highly favorable for the metal. Analysts point to persistent deficit spending in the United States and what they describe as unconventional macro policies under President Donald Trump.
“Gold prices stopped pushing higher only once the underlying drivers changed. For now, many of these remain in place,” the bank noted in a recent analysis. The team also argues gold remains under-owned despite its strong performance this year.
Goldman Sachs targets $4,900 per ounce
Goldman Sachs cohead of commodities research, Daan Struyven, sees prices reaching $4,900 by the end of next year. He highlighted two forces that continue to shape the market: aggressive central bank buying and an expected shift toward monetary easing.
Struyven says central banks are diversifying their reserves after seeing Russia’s foreign assets frozen in 2022. At the same time, anticipated rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and other central banks could funnel demand into non-yielding assets. Private investors are also seen as an increasing source of support for the market.
Deutsche Bank sees more upside
Analysts at Deutsche Bank believe gold could rise to $4,950 in 2026, with a base case closer to $4,450. The bank points to strong demand from both ETF investors and central banks, and recent technical signals suggesting positioning in the market has stabilized.
However, Deutsche also warned that a deeper correction in equities, slower-than-expected monetary easing, or easing geopolitical tensions could limit gains later next year.
HSBC takes a more cautious view
HSBC forecasts a price range between $3,600 and $4,400 per ounce in 2026. The bank notes that geopolitical shifts, nationalism, and market volatility are still likely to support gold, even if the rally begins to slow in the second half of the year.
The bank said the metal could face pressure if supply rises or if central banks reduce their pace of purchases above the $4,000 threshold.
