Better-than-expected growth after months of declines
Germany’s exports rose by 1.4% in September compared to the previous month, according to data released Friday by the federal statistics office. This increase exceeded analysts’ expectations of a 0.5% rise, as surveyed by Reuters. The surprise upturn was largely driven by a strong rebound in exports to the United States, which had previously fallen for five straight months.
Despite this positive development, Germany’s export volume still remains below the levels recorded in March 2025, prior to U.S. President Donald Trump’s announcement of sweeping tariffs on all foreign imports. The move, dubbed “Liberation Day,” disrupted global markets and led to a wave of retaliatory trade actions worldwide.
Trade surplus narrows, import growth accelerates
Imports into Germany climbed by 3.1% in September on a seasonally and calendar-adjusted basis, marking a notable pickup. The country’s trade surplus shrank to 15.3 billion euros ($17.84 billion), compared to 18.0 billion euros a year earlier.
Carsten Brzeski, global head of macro at ING, cautioned that structural headwinds still weigh heavily on Germany’s export-driven economy. “It currently requires a lot of imagination to see a quick return of the export sector as a powerful growth engine,” he said.
U.S. rebound masks long-term damage from tariffs
Exports to the U.S. surged 11.9% month-over-month in September, reversing a series of declines attributed to Washington’s tariff policy. However, compared to a year ago, exports to the U.S. were still down by 14.0%, highlighting the lingering effects of trade barriers.
“The deep wounds tariffs have inflicted on exporters in our most important export destination are still visible,” said Cyrus de la Rubia, chief economist at Hamburg Commercial Bank.
China and EU trade trends diverge
Exports to European Union countries rose by 2.5% during the month, signaling steady intra-bloc trade. In contrast, exports to countries outside the EU, excluding the U.S., showed no growth. Shipments to China dropped 2.2%, while imports from China rose sharply by 6.1%.
Since Trump’s tariffs on China took effect, the surge in Chinese imports has raised concerns among European industrial leaders. Many are now urging the European Union to take protective measures to shield local manufacturers and jobs from intensifying global competition.
