OPEC+ Faces Tough Choices on Oil Production Amid Market Uncertainty

As the December 1 meeting of OPEC+ approaches, the group faces limited options for reintroducing withheld oil production to the global market. With oil prices hovering near $70 per barrel due to weaker-than-expected demand and robust supply forecasts for 2025, key energy trading executives suggest that production increases are unlikely in the near term.

Limited Room for Production Increases

OPEC+ has been carefully managing supply, but market conditions suggest now is not the time for additional barrels.

“I think that there’s no room for them to increase, and the market will remind them of that when necessary,” said Gunvor Group Co-founder and CEO Torbjörn Törnqvist at the Energy Intelligence Forum in London.

Weaker demand this year and anticipation of strong supply next year have tempered expectations for any major production shifts.

The Geopolitical Factor

Much of OPEC+’s decision-making hinges on geopolitical developments, with a key focus on:

• Iranian Oil Exports: A potential second Donald Trump presidency could lead to stricter sanctions on Iran, a major OPEC producer, disrupting its export capacity and regional shipping flows, according to Ben Luckock, head of oil trading at Trafigura Group.
• Market Stability: OPEC+ may adopt a wait-and-see approach to assess how geopolitical tensions evolve before making significant production changes.

“The likelihood is for OPEC to try to manage the market in the next two to three months, to wait and see whether these geopolitical factors will solve themselves,” said Vitol Group CEO Russell Hardy.

Price Pressures

The current state of the oil market reflects a complex interplay of supply and demand dynamics:

• Oil prices have been pushed lower by concerns over lackluster demand.
• Expectations of strong supply in 2025 are adding downward pressure, leaving little room for OPEC+ to maneuver.

As the December meeting approaches, the group’s decision will likely reflect caution, balancing immediate market needs with a forward-looking approach to geopolitical risks. While additional production cuts or increases remain unlikely, OPEC+ will closely monitor global developments to maintain stability.